Ye Feng, editor of every reporter Ren Fei.

Last week25freespinsnodepositSpecial treasury bonds are issued on the ground, superimposed with the heavy real estate policy.25freespinsnodepositThe introduction of the bond market investment sentiment is more obvious, the short-end strong long-end shock pattern is obvious. However, the industry is still optimistic about the impact of similar situations in the past, and believes that it is necessary to observe the continuous follow-up situation of follow-up policies in order to make a long-empty judgment, but in view of the current situation, the impact on the subsequent pricing of the bond market has obviously increased.

There are great differences in investment sentiment between the long and short ends of the bond market.

Last week, the high-profile ultra-long-term special treasury bonds landed on the ground. on May 13, the Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for this year's ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and on May 17, 30-year special treasury bonds were officially issued. Bond markets reacted violently to such a piece of news.

As of May 17, affected by factors such as the launch of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and the substantial increase in real estate easing policies, the bond market showed a volatile market. On Friday, the yields on 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds closed at 2.25freespinsnodeposit.3077%, 225freespinsnodeposit.5867%, lower than the previous weekend level of 2.84BP, 2.59BP.

In other words, the month-on-month decline in long-term bond yields to the end of last week is due to changes in the trading links of the relevant bonds, and the decline in yields is actually due to the rise in bond prices, and vice versa.

Therefore, the bond market funds for the long-and short-end asset allocation has a certain switch at the same time, the market also turns to shock. Although the yield of long-term treasury bonds has declined periodically, it also shows that the pursuit of short-term funds is on the rise, and the rise in bond prices is more obvious.

In fact, this situation is not difficult to understand. In essence, it is due to the increase in the supply of long-term bonds and the replacement of some funds; and from the performance of the fund, corresponding to the increase in long-term bond yields and the decline in the level of short-end yields, the median weekly yield of medium-and long-term pure debt funds is 0.0982%, while that of short-term debt funds is 0.0667%.

Some analysts pointed out that at present, the trend of the inflection point in the bond market is not obvious, especially in view of this special treasury bond issue, it also adopts the principle of marketization, that is, pricing in a market-oriented way and public bidding for members of the bookkeeping treasury bond underwriting syndicate. or it can properly calm the worries of bond investors and effectively curb the fluctuation of risk-free interest rates.

The analysis of Noan Fund pointed out that it is expected that the tone of monetary policy will continue to be sound in the near future, with reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system, stable operation of money market interest rates, phased changes in the supply and demand pattern of bonds, and the overall volatility of yields.

The disturbance factors in the future will increase.

Although institutions' expectations for bond market investment are relatively neutral, in view of the current situation, there are indeed more factors affecting bond market disturbance than before, which is also an aspect that bond investors need to pay attention to.

An analysis of the research report from Minsheng Securities pointed out that, on the one hand, the bidding results for the issuance of the first ultra-long-term special treasury bonds during the year were in line with market expectations, and economic data in April showed that consumption and investment weakened synchronously; on the other hand, the overall pattern of funds continued to be loose, non-bank funds were relatively abundant, and capital layering almost "disappeared."

As far as the bond market is concerned, after this round of real estate policy relaxation, the relevant fundamentals and the coordination of government debt supply and monetary funds, the future still needs to follow the judgment, there is no clear inflection point.

In the current macro context, the possibility of a shift in monetary policy is not high, the current liquidity is still in a reasonable and abundant state, the subsequent superimposed central bank balanced investment to cooperate, it is expected that the capital side will not further converge. However, taking into account the stable exchange rate and air defense demand, superimposed long-end interest rate risk prevention, the central bank operation has always been more accurate, and taking into account the impact of the subsequent supply of government debt, the probability of a substantial easing of funds is expected to be low, or it is difficult to appear significantly lower than the policy interest rate.

Therefore, some institutional analysis pointed out that at present, the stability of the medium and short end is better, from a strategic point of view, interest rate debt may be appropriately steep curve, for the ultra-long end still need to maintain a prudent, financial recovery trend, the short-and medium-end coupon strategy may be more dominant.